Things just got interesting... or boring.

Daniels has this much % chance of running.

Mitch Daniels - OUT.
Huck - Out.
Trump - Out.
Pence - Out.

If anyone thinks they know, or say they know what is going on - they don't. Politics is constantly a changing game, and a lot depends on what the "other guy/girl" does. With Daniels out, we have 4 "Big" names for sure out... that in November we thought would play a big roll in what happens. Now, like I said, we can't really know what is going to happen, we have to evaluate things step by step. Aside from those four, I don't think we can say for sure that anyone else is 'Out'.

What we can do is watch to see where momentum is mounting. That is the fun part of politics, you get to watch things happen... as if it were in slow motion. So let's look at the momentum areas, all of "Indiana" is out, so let us focus in on various groups:

• The Minnesota Delegation:
• Bachmann & Pawlenty: They can't run together, that would cut out Minnesota's Electoral College votes... but they both might run. Pawlenty has a lot of the same problems that some of the folks choosing not to run have... and Bachmann may actually be hurt by so many of the middle of the road moderates dropping out. 
• The Young Guns:
• Paul Ryan & Marco Rubio have said they aren't running... oh really? Something tells me the pressure mounts on these folks from the "draft" folks. These guys are going to be "pulling on some heartstrings" ... problem is they are unknown quantities on the national stage.
• The "Retro Crowd":
• Santorum, Romney, Ron Paul, Newt, Rudy - Now I am not saying these are all birds of a feather, but I am saying that they have been here before, and a lot of people are going to start saying, "See, I told you we should have gone with ________ in 2008." This might help some, and hurt others.
• The "I can't believe they are aren't running" crowd: 
• JEB & CHRISTIE - If you would have asked your typical everyday Republican a year ago whether Jeb & Christie should run, they would have probably laughed and said no, they can run their state but the country would never rally behind them. Well, it is now 2011 and folks are going to start begging these guys to run... if they haven't already.
• The Man & The Woman:
• At this moment, there are two people who I believe take center stage. That isn't to say they are going to get the win here, but the momentum and focus shift to them. Herman Cain and Sarah Palin. One is in... the other holds the pendulum. Herman Cain came in as a conservative "sentimental favorite" of folks like Erick Erickson and now seems to have a ton of the "conservative" support. Palin - what she does (or doesn't do) will have a huge affect on almost everyone else. 
• The ? Marks:
• There are a few names out there, that I think could jump into the race or could have an affect now that we have seen so many "Big names" drop out. Folks like Gary Johnson, Huntsman, Rick Perry. I know some will run, and some have said they wont, but people will put a focus on them until the picture gets more clear. Also, folks like Jindal and Barbour 

Now these groups are more for general focus, I don't think that the groups I put people has any more meaning than to help categorize them. All and all, I really don't think we are anywhere near having a clear or full picture of what is going to happen. Plus, once we do get a full slate of candidates, then the real interesting race and momentum start to happen. 

So, like I said, things just got more interesting or boring. It is sort of like when we hear that new Bishops are going to be announced, and we get all excited. Except we can't really know what is going to happen, until it does. 

The take away from all of this is - guys like, Huck, Daniels and Trump are all out. So is Pence, but that is a sore spot for me - I think he could and would win if he ran. As for the big takeaway here there are 5 people to watch, I think they become the biggest influences on this situation. That does not mean they are my top 5, or the best 5, or even the 5 that will make it to the end. What I am saying is they affect what happens with everyone else the most:

• Cain: Is he a marathon runner? Can he grab the reins and hold on through this whole process? If so can he raise money? Who would be a "rumored" running mate for him as we get to the point where that becomes important? Does he peak too soon?
• Romney: Love him, hate him, it doesnt matter - this guy is here and is raising billions, literally. McCain showed us that if you raise money, and can keep yourself from being labeled you might have the best chance. No one really knows where this guys stands on anything... his greatest strength is his greatest weakness.
• Pawlenty: What is this guys deal? If you asked me or other Catholics who we wanted once Pence was gone... this was the quick answer in January. Now with folks like Bachmann, Cain, and Palin around he doesn't seem to be the shining star. I know a lot about the guy, and I have no idea what he is like. I know this sounds shallow, but the name might hurt him, and his quiet conservative way might as well. 
• Christie: He probably won't will won't will won't will  run. I have no idea what this guy is going to do, which is what makes him such a force in this situation. The GOP needs strong, agressive, and bold leadership. They need a candidate that makes 2008 Barack Hussein Obama look like boring. If Palin doesn't run, look to him to become a major focus. (You could also see Jeb doing the same thing here).
• Palin: She is on the "clock" so she is the one everyone will be looking at to make her decision. I think her decision will influence a lot of 'Outs' one way or the other. So folks like Jeb, Christie, Ryan and Rubio will be heavily influenced one way or the other depending on what she does. Not only for fundraising reasons, but for spotlight reasons. Palin draws - love her or hate her, she draws, all the guys I mentioned are big names, but pale compared to Palin... that is important for many reasons, it might even make one of them an underdog, something they are not used to but could capitalize on. I think she is the biggest focus and will be long after her decision. If she throws 'In' - she becomes the instant #1, if she doesn't run - she becomes a focus not only for V.P. but also for who she backs and what she does between now and Nov. 2012. 

My Darkhorse: I still have a feeling about Bachmann. I think if she runs, and Palin doesn't she becomes a force, but different than Palin would be. She is bold enough to really shape the debates, the issues, and the focus of this race. Even if she doesn't eventually win, she will have an effect over what is said and done during the primary run-up. If cards fall a certain way she could end up the nominee and with a V.P. like a Christie or Jeb, this could be a Darkhorse candidate.

Ok, did anyone get this far? I just mentally threw some ideas down, and now I want this blog to self-destruct because it is shallow in analysis and I disagree with all of it. Like I said, politics is ever changing. Don't be surprised if this post disappears. 

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