I dare wonder what some "conservatives" will say. Now, I am not throwing my all out endorsement behind her. I think it is still fairly early, despite what some may say. I will say this, I respect her and what she brings to the table. I don't think any of the candidates are "bulletproof" in that they all have some sort of "glass-jaw", but as I have said in earlier posts some candidates are good for the development of the platform upon which the ultimate nominee will run on. I think that in the very least Bachmann adds a very conservative and authentic voice to that platform.
Erick Erickson of RedState has a similar take, but with a little more of a direct way of saying it:
I am getting a lot of angst in my inbox already about Michele Bachmann. It is sooooo predictable as to be pathetic.So while an Iowa Straw Poll win doesn't mean much necessarily (the only winner to be president was GWB), it does help weed out the field a bit. So let's take a look at where we stand after this weekend.
Michele Bachmann is weighing down Rick Perry and therefore helping MItt Romney. So Bachmann should get out.
Friends, it could be that Rick Perry is weighing down Michele Bachmann, so he should get it out.
In fact, neither is true. Both have a right to be there. This line of argument is sometimes valid, but it is way early. Michele Bachmann just won a huge victory in the Iowa straw poll despite being out staffed and out spent.
If you truly believe that Congresswoman Bachmann needs to now drop out because she is a spoiler, you are an idiot. It is that simple.
Moving up
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- Rick Perry: He is in. He wasn't even on the straw poll ballot and beat Romney as a write-in. This says something to me, and where this race is headed.
- Michele Bachmann: She won Iowa, it helps. She did well at the debate, handled a tough question and used it for her own gain. On top of that, the media is becoming unglued with her in Palin-esque fashion which can only help her cause. In fact, rumor has it that she was getting more attention in Iowa than Palin.
- Rick Santorum: Some say your are only as good as your last "game" and as a loser of his last election that didn't bode well for him. He has some past "issues" to shake off but seemed to really move forward in the debate. His Catholic virtues will help, and so might his "hawkish" stance on Iran - those two things for opposite sets of supporters.
- Marco Rubio: If you wondering whether you missed some huge development in the 2012 landscape, don't worry - you haven't. I mention Rubio because his name is being floated as the VP name. The idea of a "Super-Ticket" between two strong candidates heading into the primary doesn't seem likely with Rubio around. In fact, I could see Rubio partnering up with almost anyone except Romney. I was hoping that Bachmann might slide into a VP slot, but her early success might have pushed her out of that. The biggest ticket rumor I have heard is "Perry-Rubio" - that seems to get a lot of hearts beating faster.
Moving down... and out?
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- Tim Pawlenty: He is out. He had a rather slow paced campaign from the get go. As someone that liked what "T-Paw" brought to the table, especially after Pence said he wasn't running, I am a little disappointed in his efforts overall. He said he isn't interested in a V.P. nod, but who he ends up endorsing will say a lot. He never really separated himself from the pack, so while I think it is good for some to stay in, I don't have a problem seeing him bow out now, especially with his inability to really make himself distinct.
- Ron Paul: Ok, here is a secret. In 2008 I almost voted for him. There was something about what he stood for in 2008 that made a lot of sense to a conservative of my ilk, but since then something has been lost. I don't know if he has changed, the climate has changed, or if there are just better alternatives this time but he just isn't doing it for me this time around. The debate was odd, he had Ron Paul answers but they came across as flat to me.
- Herman Cain: My analysis is that he got in too early. He has a lot of good things to say, but honestly he needed to an answer to a void, and instead he has become a space filler. What I mean is that he says a lot of good things, and maybe at times has a better across the board stance on things than anyone, but he doesn't seem to have that savvy or "Presidential" feel. I think there is a little time left for him, but this weekend hurt him. He needed to come in and "shock" people and make them ask: "Who is that?" Instead, because he has "been" around a bit, everyone sort of knows who he is and that hurts.
- Hunstman, Gingrich, McCotter: I don't know what to say about these guys except that they "aren't long for this race"... Hunstman had a bad debate, Gingrich had a good one but not good enough. McCotter, well, as a former constituent of his I know he has a good "stance" on thing, but comes off rather unpolished in person. I think they will stay in to shape the debate, but at some point soon we will see most of them go the way of the buffalo.
The Question Marks...
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- Palin: I have said for a long time I don't think she is running. Some reporters seem to agree with that after this weekend for various reasons. She will continue to shape the debate, and she will continue to keep people on their toes wondering if she will jump in. Some have floated the idea of her as a VP to Romney which might be a possibility only because she has been the only contender to say anything nice about him. (Something to the effect that she would vote for him.) That being said there is one factor that may make me change my mind... (see the next point.)
- Obama: His approval rating is down to 39%. His disapproval is at 54% - both new "records" for his presidency. If this keeps up, anyone with an (R) could win, which means that Palin might see this as a "window" that she cant pass up.
- Romney, Rubio, Ryan, and Christie: One of these isn't like the other. That is: one is an announced candidate while the other 3 are in the "Draft Them" category. They all have an affect on what will happen, because of what others say and think about them. Anything coming out of their mouths can affect the polls. Keep an eye and ear on them.
So, this is an off the cuff analysis of what I think is "happening" right now in the 2012 GOP field. This is more of an explanation as opposed to an argument for any one candidate. What do you think? Am I crazy, off base, or do you see things differently - then let us know in the comment box. Otherwise, hold onto your seats things are going to get interesting especially as we head to the the Northeast.
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