By Neil Stockley, Director, Bell Pottinger Public Affairs
“In the next phase of the coalition, both partners will be able to be clearer in their identities, but equally clear about the need to support Government and government policy. We will stand together, but not so closely that we stand in each other’s shadow. You will see a strong liberal identity in a strong coalition government. You might even call it muscular liberalism.”
Nick Clegg, ‘The Coalition and Liberal Politics’, National Liberal Club, 11 May 2011
Ever since the coalition was formed, one year ago, a debate has raged within the Liberal Democrats about how the party should position itself. At one end of the spectrum was the party’s leader and deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, who wanted the party to take full ownership and responsibility for the entire coalition programme. In so doing, he and his advisers claimed, the Liberal Democrats could prove that they were competent and serious; not a wasted vote or a protest group, but a credible party of government.
Mr Clegg was correct. One of voters’ main reservations about the Liberal Democrats has long been that they were decent and thoughtful people, but not quite tough or rigorous enough to be trusted with power. They tended to see a vote for the Liberal Democrats as a wasted vote.
At the other end of the spectrum was a gambit usually associated (sometimes too simplistically) with the party’s deputy leader, Simon Hughes and president, Tim Farron. The party stands by the coalition but is ready to go public about their differences with the Conservatives. Nick Clegg and other ministers should also do more to proclaim their victories. These may be Liberal Democrat policies that have been put in place, such as tax reform for the lowest paid or more support for pensioners. They may also be Conservative plans that are moderated or halted altogether, such as the renewal of Trident in this Parliament and the scrapping of the Human Rights Act.
Party activists have regularly pressed Nick Clegg and his colleagues to publicly distance themselves from government policies that they disagree with. Many complain bitterly that the party has become a "human shield" for unpopular coalition decisions, most notably over tuition fees. The common theme in this line of thinking is the need to protect the party’s integrity, as well as its political brand, which has appeared to be swallowed up by the Conservative-led coalition.
A strong case can also be made for an “independence” strategy. The experience of coalitions in New Zealand, for example, has been that third or minor parties who enter into coalition arrangements are partly or wholly eaten by the larger party. They then suffer a sharp, sometimes fatal, decline in electoral support at the next general election. The Liberal Democrats are acutely at risk of suffering what Tim Bale, an academic at Sussex University, calls the “black widow” effect, and they know it.
The debate came to a head after last week’s “Super Thursday” of elections was followed by a grim Black Friday for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. The party lost nearly 750 council seats in England, their worst local election performance in more than 20 years, and were reduced to a five-seat rump in the Scottish Parliament. In the referendum on whether to bring in the alternative vote for electing MPs – supposedly one of the Liberal Democrats’ big prizes from the coalition deal – voters opted, by a thumping margin, to stick with the current voting system.
The latest round of public opinion polls gives the Liberal Democrats no more comfort. The YouGov website puts the party’s average poll rating at 12%, nearly half the level of support that they won at the last general election.
So, in today’s keynote speech marking the first year of the coalition, Nick Clegg promised that the Liberal Democrats will be more "muscular" in government and their influence more "visible".
"The coalition has shown itself to be a durable, stable government," Nick Clegg said in his speech. "But it is clear, not least from what we heard on the doorsteps in recent weeks, that people want the Liberal Democrats to be a louder voice in government."
“We need to do a better job of blowing our own trumpet on policies,” he said, adding that “terms of policy impact, we are punching well above our weight.”
“We can also be more assertive about our different positions on certain issues, without threatening the stability of the government.”
The strategy unveiled by Nick Clegg today is not as ground-breaking as he may have wanted. The deputy PM’s advisers have long acknowledged that the second phase of the parliament would see the Liberal Democrats take a more assertive approach to their coalition allies, and trying harder to stake out their own political ground.
At their spring conference in March, the Liberal Democrats served notice on their ministers that they expect to see big changes in the government’s NHS reforms. The conference voted almost unanimously to give councillors a central role in GP commissioning and in scrutinising foundation trusts. They called for a ban on all cherry-picking by private companies offering treatment services. The demands on Nick Clegg from his own party over the NHS show no sign of letting up.
The bitter spats between Conservative and Liberal Democrat ministers in the run-up to the AV referendum made it almost certain that relations between the two coalition parties would now be more formal and businesslike and less like the “love in” that many Lib Dems have watched with gritted teeth.
Nick Clegg’s shift of strategy, however sensible or inevitable it may be, will bring him a fresh of set of challenges. First, the Conservatives will not wish to be re-cast as the “nasty party”, with their coalition allies as the “middle ground” heroes. The deputy PM’s claim that the Liberal Democrats have been a moderating force within the government has already been publicly rejected by David Cameron and other ministers.
Second, more assertive trumpet-blowing within a stable coalition government will be much harder to pull off than some Liberal Democrats may appreciate. Nick Clegg’s argument that a successful coalition is essential if his party is to have any credibility has not been altered by last week’s election results. It is in their interest, and David Cameron’s, for the coalition to continue. (In any case, there is no call from within the Liberal Democrats to kill the coalition.) A series of public rows between the coalition parties would annoy the public, who wouldn’t necessarily side with Nick Clegg’s party. The electorate may forgive and even reward the Liberal Democrats if they deliver popular policies. But they would punish Nick Clegg’s party and have no more truck with hung parliaments if they seem to abuse their power.
Third, Nick Clegg and his colleagues will have to define, pick and conduct their issues carefully, without making them look too much like scraps. Ministers will also need to put forward some interesting and innovative new ideas on the issues that matter most to voters. And the deputy PM will need to explain in simple terms what today’s pledge to “combine economic soundness with social justice - competence with a conscience” means.
Nick Clegg’s skills as a political manager are going to be put to the test as never before. Still, he and the Liberal Democrats want to make a difference within the government, and to reap political rewards. Watch for banking policy, immigration and tax reform as some of the early platforms, along with NHS reform. Welcome to coalition, phase 2.
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