Written by Peter Bingle, Chairman, Bell Pottinger Public Affairs
A stunning SNP performance in Scotland. It is now almost inevitable that the Scottish people will have the chance to vote in a referendum on independence. The Labour Party has been routed in many of its traditional strongholds including Glasgow. Even more impressively, the SNP has won ‘no hope’ seats such as Edinburgh Pentlands from the Tories and Edinburgh West from the Lib Dems. This is a personal triumph for Alex Salmond. It is hard to see Iain Gray remaining Labour Leader. He avoided the humiliation of losing his own seat by just 151 votes.
The Labour campaign in Scotland was shambolic. Neither Jim Murphy nor Douglas Alexander took control of it. Have you heard of the Labour Shadow Scottish Secretary? Sending up Ed Miliband and Ed Balls at the end of the campaign proved to be a disastrous mistake as was the negativity of the Labour Party campaign. The political ramifications of the SNP triumph are huge. If Ed Miliband cannot count on Scotland at the next general election he may as well pack up his bags now and go back to Primrose Hill.
Labour performed much better in Wales. Plaid Cymru appear to have gained no political benefit from being part of the coalition. The Tories have confirmed their position as the second party in Wales. In her own quiet way Cheryl Gillan has done a great job rebuilding the Tory Party in Wales. Scottish Tories should ask for her help and advice.
In England the Labour Party has made impressive gains from the Lib Dems who had a miserable time, particularly in the north. David Cameron will be delighted with the Tory Party’s performance. Holding councils such as Southampton and Dartford is no mean feat. His involvement in the AV campaign appears to have shored up the Tory vote. The Tories have also won a number of councils from the Lib Dems …
The Lib Dems have, as predicted, had a terrible time. There will be frantic efforts by party managers to prevent open warfare breaking out. All eyes will be on Chris Huhne. Does he stay or does he go? If he goes does he go voluntarily or does Nick Clegg assert his authority over his former rival. He will have the chance to do so in the reshuffle which is rumoured to be happening next week. For the coalition to survive the Deputy PM needs to regain his status and authority. Taking action against colleagues who are not playing the game might be one way of doing so.
The British public don’t like bad losers. They expect politicians to take bad results on the chin and learn the lessons. In this regard, I am not sure that Paddy Ashdown’s newspaper interviews are very helpful. Perhaps this is a time for the Lord Ashdown to be silent.
There has been one senior Labour politician who has been barely visible over the last few weeks. Has anybody seen David Miliband? Where is he and what is he up to?
Will Scotland ever vote for independence? Can the SNP repeat this performance at the next general election? What went wrong for Labour? What does Nick Clegg need to do to reassert his political authority? Will Chris Huhne stay or go? Where is David Miliband?
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